Political Theories

Well, it’s one week after the elections (I did vote, by the way), and I’ve already heard or read several theories as to what the voting results mean for the next two years.

I’ve heard one theory that if the Democrats move toward getting us out of Iraq, that it will most likely cause civil war in that region. Thousands would probably die. It would make the Republicans look right for having started the war (or at least prolonging it), leaving Democrats with a no-win situation. If we stay, it looks like the Democrats are doing nothing; if we pull out, the Democrats will get blamed for whatever new mess that causes.

I’ve read one article online saying that things probably won’t get much better or much different in Iraq for quite some time. That author’s theory is that no one wants to take the blame for any mess in Iraq, past or future, and with no one willing to fall on the sword, nothing will really change.

Regarding the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld, I’ve heard one theory on the radio that if Bush & Rumsfeld had timed the resignation for several months before the election, it might have made things at least slightly better for the Republicans in the vote. Another theory is that Bush is a Democrat in Republican clothing and didn’t care if Rumsfeld’s resignation on the day after elections made the backlash against the Republicans look that much worse. One final theory is that the day after elections was the best time for Rumsfeld to resign because it allowed for a one-day “bad news dump” in which media focus was split between stories and everything was out of the way at once.

This also seemed to be a major year of scandals, and while I haven’t kept up with the news enough to remember names & details, I think the Republicans carried the bulk of scandals this time around.

I’ll be honest, when it comes to politics, I’m not sure what to think. It’s so hard to trust anyone in power that almost anyone’s theory about strategy or corruption or media manipulation makes sense on some level. In a way, politics looks a lot like Survivor (secret alliances, constant strategizing, lies of omission, lies of misinformation, just plain lies, betrayal, broken promises, rats, etc.).