Sunday, February 25, 2007

Entertainment Weekly's Oscar Percentage Breakdowns

Entertainment Weekly chose to breakdown the eight main categories by percentage. I'm not sure if those percentages are based on expert predictions or preferences by online voters or something else entirely. Nevertheless, it's broken down by numbers, and as a mathy guy, I like numbers.

Entertainment Weekly's Oscar Predictions

Best Picture
25% = The Departed
23% = Little Miss Sunshine
20% = Babel
17% = The Queen
15% = Letters From Iwo Jima
Commentary: Wow, that's close. Only a 10% difference between the front-runner and last place. This race really is wide open. My order of preference from highest to lowest is Queen, Letters, Departed, Babel, and Sunshine.

Best Lead Actor
30% = Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
25% = Peter O'Toole (Venus)
20% = Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
15% = Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
10% = Will Smith (Pursuit of Happyness)

Best Lead Actress
40% = Helen Mirren (The Queen)
20% = Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
20% = Meryl Streep (Devil Wears Prada)
10% = Kate Winslet (Little Children)
10% = Penelope Cruz (Volver)

Best Supporting Actor
35% = Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
30% = Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
15% = Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)
15% = Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
05% = Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)

Best Supporting Actress
30% = Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
25% = Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
25% = Adriana Barraza (Babel)
10% = Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
10% = Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Commentary: Considering the hype around Jennifer Hudson, I'm surprised her margin of winning isn't higher. Blanchett's close trailing 2nd place I can understand, but I'm surprised Barraza is also that high up. My personal order of preference from highest to least is Hudson, Blanchett (just *barely* behind Hudson), Barraza, Breslin, and Kikuchi.

Best Director
40% = Martin Scorses (The Departed)
25% = Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima)
15% = Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
10% = Paul Greengrass (United 93)
10% = Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Commentary: Considering the buzz, it sounds like Scorsese is a lock but that it may be a win by default, that he may be getting rewarded for his full body of work rather than The Departed specifically. I'm at least glad to see Eastwood 2nd but disappointed Greengrass isn't higher. My personal order of preference from highest to least is Greengrass, Eastwood, Frears, Scorsese, and Inarritu.

Best Original Screenplay
30% = Little Miss Sunshine
25% = The Queen
20% = Pan's Labyrinth
20% = Babel
05% = Letters From Iwo Jima
Commentary: I just don't comprehend why people are so in love with Little Miss Sunshine. It had some redeeming qualities (I still gave it a C grade), but those last five to ten minutes just ruined the movie for me, and I wasn't loving it to start with. My personal order of preference from highest to least is Queen, Labyrinth, Letters, Babel, and Sunshine.

Best Adapted Screenplay
40% = The Departed
25% = Little Children
15% = Notes on a Scandal
10% = Children of Men
10% = Borat

...and their other predictions...

Best Art Direction: Dreamgirls
Best Cinematography: Children of Men
Best Film Editing: United 93
Best Original Score: The Queen
Best Original Song: "Listen" (Dreamgirls)
Best Visual Effects: Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Sound Editing: Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
Best Costume Design: Marie Antoinette
Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Foreign Language Film: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Animated Feature: Cars

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